FC Arouca v Boavista
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Arouca beat Boavista 4–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Róbert Boženík for 1+ shots total (96%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Jason for 1+ shots on target (61%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Róbert Boženík | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdoulay Diaby | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marco van Ginkel | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Henrique Araújo | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jason | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Miguel Puche | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alfonso Trezza | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Miguel Reisinho | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 4 | ✓ |
| Róbert Boženík | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdoulay Diaby | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jason | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| Henrique Araújo | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 2 | ✓ |
| Miguel Puche | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alfonso Trezza | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Boavista 1–3 FC Arouca Jan 2025
- FC Arouca 2–1 Boavista Apr 2024
- Boavista 0–4 FC Arouca Dec 2023
- Boavista 0–0 FC Arouca Mar 2023
- FC Arouca 1–2 Boavista Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Arouca v Boavista?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Arouca v Boavista?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jason at 61% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.