FC Arouca v CF Estrela Amadora
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Arouca beat CF Estrela Amadora 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Ivan Barbero for 1+ shots total (98%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Leandro Antonetti for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
12 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Nandín | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ivan Barbero | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leandro Antonetti | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gabriel Rukavina | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abraham Marcus | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ianis Stoica | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Naïs Djouahra | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alfonso Trezza | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bénito | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dylan Nandín | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ivan Barbero | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lovro Zvonarek | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Santiago Serra | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pablo Gozálbez | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Arouca 1–0 CF Estrela Amadora Apr 2026
- CF Estrela Amadora 3–1 FC Arouca Dec 2025
- FC Arouca 1–0 CF Estrela Amadora Apr 2025
- CF Estrela Amadora 2–1 FC Arouca Dec 2024
- FC Arouca 0–0 CF Estrela Amadora May 2024
- CF Estrela Amadora 1–4 FC Arouca Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Arouca v CF Estrela Amadora?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Arouca v CF Estrela Amadora?
The most confident call it got wrong was Leandro Antonetti at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.