FC Arouca v Estoril Praia
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Arouca beat Estoril Praia 3–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Yanis Begraoui for 1+ shots total (98%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Alejandro Marqués for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanis Begraoui | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 4 | ✓ |
| André Lacximicant | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ivan Barbero | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Marqués | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Naïs Djouahra | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pablo Gozálbez | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| João Carvalho | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hyun-ju Lee | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yanis Begraoui | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| André Lacximicant | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Xeka | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Taichi Fukui | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ivan Barbero | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 2 | ✓ |
| Naïs Djouahra | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Estoril Praia 0–0 FC Arouca Sep 2026
- Estoril Praia 4–3 FC Arouca Nov 2025
- FC Arouca 1–0 Estoril Praia Mar 2025
- Estoril Praia 4–1 FC Arouca Oct 2024
- Estoril Praia 1–2 FC Arouca Jan 2024
- FC Arouca 4–3 Estoril Praia Aug 2023
- Estoril Praia 2–0 FC Arouca May 2023
- FC Arouca 2–0 Estoril Praia Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Arouca v Estoril Praia?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Arouca v Estoril Praia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Alejandro Marqués at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.