FC Arouca v SC Farense
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Arouca drew with SC Farense 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Morlaye Sylla for 1+ shots total (98%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Henrique Araújo for 1+ shots total (98%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yusupha Njie | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jason | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Henrique Araújo | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 0 | ✗ |
| Morlaye Sylla | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rony Lopes | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dylan Nandín | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alfonso Trezza | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tomané | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Pablo Gozálbez | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yusupha Njie | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jason | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rony Lopes | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Filipe Soares | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| Claudio Falcão | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- SC Farense 0–1 FC Arouca Sep 2024
- FC Arouca 2–1 SC Farense Mar 2024
- SC Farense 2–0 FC Arouca Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Arouca v SC Farense?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Arouca v SC Farense?
The most confident call it got wrong was Henrique Araújo at 98% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.