Primeira Liga 25/26

FC Arouca v Vitória SC

How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.

FC Arouca3 – 2 Vitória SC 7 Feb 2026

12~~/14~~

of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before FC Arouca beat Vitória SC 3–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Nélson Oliveira for 1+ shots total (96%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Matija Mitrović for 1+ shots total (79%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials

Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca refereed this match 5.00cards a gameleague 5.17 19games

Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca's card record

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Gustavo Silva	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Nélson Oliveira	shots total	1+	96%	3	✓
Samu	shots total	1+	86%	1	✓
Ivan Barbero	shots total	1+	86%	2	✓
Noah Saviolo	shots total	1+	86%	1	✓
Oumar Camara	shots total	1+	82%	2	✓
Naïs Djouahra	shots total	1+	79%	2	✓
Matija Mitrović	shots total	1+	79%	0	✗
Alfonso Trezza	shots total	1+	78%	3	✓
Diogo Sousa	shots total	1+	76%	2	✓
Hyun-ju Lee	shots total	1+	74%	1	✓
Gustavo Silva	shots on target	1+	61%	1	✓
Nélson Oliveira	shots on target	1+	61%	1	✓
Samu	shots on target	1+	59%	0	✗

How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target

Dig deeper

FC Arouca & Vitória SC player stats→ FC Arouca players & stats→ Vitória SC players & stats→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on FC Arouca v Vitória SC?

12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on FC Arouca v Vitória SC?

The most confident call it got wrong was Matija Mitrović at 79% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works