FC Porto v FC Arouca
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Porto beat FC Arouca 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being André Silva for 1+ shots total (96%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Dylan Nandín for 1+ shots total (79%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Silva | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| William Gomes | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gabri Veiga | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ivan Barbero | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dylan Nandín | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| André Silva | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alfonso Trezza | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| William Gomes | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Victor Froholdt | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 4 | ✓ |
| Naïs Djouahra | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pepê | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 6 | ✓ |
| Alberto Costa | shots total | 1+ | 58% | 0 | ✗ |
| Hyun-ju Lee | shots total | 1+ | 54% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pablo Gozálbez | shots total | 1+ | 54% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Porto 3–1 FC Arouca Feb 2026
- FC Arouca 0–4 FC Porto Sep 2025
- FC Arouca 0–2 FC Porto Mar 2025
- FC Porto 4–0 FC Arouca Sep 2024
- FC Arouca 3–2 FC Porto Feb 2024
- FC Porto 1–1 FC Arouca Sep 2023
- FC Arouca 0–1 FC Porto May 2023
- FC Porto 5–1 FC Arouca Dec 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Porto v FC Arouca?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Porto v FC Arouca?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dylan Nandín at 79% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.