Marítimo v FC Arouca
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Marítimo drew with FC Arouca 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being André Bukia for 1+ shots total (98%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Rafa Mújica for 1+ shots total (98%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Bukia | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 3 | ✓ |
| Oday Dabbagh | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rafa Mújica | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 0 | ✗ |
| Antony Alves | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 5 | ✓ |
| Bruno Xadas | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joel Tagueu | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Morlaye Sylla | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| André Vidigal | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alan Ruiz | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ismaila Soro | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| David Simão | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rafa Mújica | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Antony Alves | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oday Dabbagh | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Arouca 2–1 Marítimo Aug 2026
- FC Arouca 1–0 Marítimo Apr 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Marítimo v FC Arouca?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Marítimo v FC Arouca?
The most confident call it got wrong was Rafa Mújica at 98% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.