Moreirense v FC Porto
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Moreirense lost to FC Porto 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Samu Aghehowa for 1+ shots total (98%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Yan Maranhão for 1+ shots total (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samu Aghehowa | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 4 | ✓ |
| Borja Sainz | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| William Gomes | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Mora | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gabri Veiga | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Guilherme Schettine | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yan Maranhão | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Samu Aghehowa | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 4 | ✓ |
| Benny | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pepê | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Victor Froholdt | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cedric Teguia | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Borja Sainz | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| William Gomes | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Porto 2–1 Moreirense Sep 2026
- FC Porto 3–0 Moreirense Mar 2026
- FC Porto 3–1 Moreirense May 2025
- Moreirense 0–3 FC Porto Dec 2024
- FC Porto 5–0 Moreirense Jan 2024
- Moreirense 1–2 FC Porto Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Moreirense v FC Porto?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Moreirense v FC Porto?
The most confident call it got wrong was Yan Maranhão at 78% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.