Paços de Ferreira v Benfica
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Paços de Ferreira lost to Benfica 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being João Mário for 1+ shots total (98%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Gonçalo Ramos for 1+ shots total (98%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petar Musa | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Ramos | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 0 | ✗ |
| João Mário | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Guedes | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Enzo Fernández | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Petar Musa | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Ramos | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fredrik Aursnes | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| João Mário | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nigel Thomas | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alexandre Guedes | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 3 | ✓ |
| Adrián Butzke | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gonçalo Guedes | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicolás Otamendi | shots total | 1+ | 58% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Benfica 3–2 Paços de Ferreira Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Paços de Ferreira v Benfica?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Paços de Ferreira v Benfica?
The most confident call it got wrong was Gonçalo Ramos at 98% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.