Santa Clara v Rio Ave
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Santa Clara beat Rio Ave 4–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Vinícius Lopes for 1+ shots total (98%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Dario Špikić for 1+ shots total (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonçalo Paciência | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Lopes | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brenner | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Sorriso | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Malik Sellouki | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Dario Špikić | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tamblé Monteiro | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tiago Ribeiro | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Roland Galčík | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jalen Blesa | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Diogo Bezerra | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daniel Borges | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Paciência | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marios Vrousai | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Santa Clara 0–2 Rio Ave Apr 2026
- Rio Ave 1–1 Santa Clara Nov 2025
- Rio Ave 1–1 Santa Clara Apr 2025
- Santa Clara 1–0 Rio Ave Dec 2024
- Santa Clara 0–2 Rio Ave Mar 2023
- Rio Ave 1–0 Santa Clara Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Santa Clara v Rio Ave?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Santa Clara v Rio Ave?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dario Špikić at 82% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.