Sporting Braga v Chaves
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sporting Braga drew with Chaves 1–1, the SharpXI model made 13 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Ricardo Horta for 1+ shots total (98%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Héctor Hernández for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Djaló | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 7 | ✓ |
| Ricardo Horta | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Abel Ruíz | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 7 | ✓ |
| Héctor Hernández | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Pizzi | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Moatasem Al-Musrati | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Álvaro Djaló | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ricardo Horta | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kelechi Nwakali | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| Héctor Hernández | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abel Ruíz | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 3 | ✓ |
| Raphael Guzzo | shots total | 1+ | 54% | 0 | ✗ |
| Moatasem Al-Musrati | shots on target | 1+ | 48% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Chaves 2–4 Sporting Braga Aug 2023
- Chaves 1–2 Sporting Braga Apr 2023
- Sporting Braga 0–1 Chaves Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sporting Braga v Chaves?
10 of its 13 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sporting Braga v Chaves?
The most confident call it got wrong was Héctor Hernández at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.