Sporting CP v Casa Pia
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sporting CP beat Casa Pia 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Luis Javier Suárez for 1+ shots total (98%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Claudio Mendes for 1+ shots total (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 3 | ✓ |
| Geny Catamo | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Francisco Trincão | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Luís Guilherme | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daniel Bragança | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Claudio Mendes | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ricardo Mangas | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Geny Catamo | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kelian Nsona | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| João Simões | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tiago Morais | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Xander Severina | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Francisco Trincão | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP Aug 2025
- Casa Pia 1–3 Sporting CP Mar 2025
- Sporting CP 2–0 Casa Pia Oct 2024
- Sporting CP 8–0 Casa Pia Jan 2024
- Casa Pia 1–2 Sporting CP Aug 2023
- Casa Pia 3–4 Sporting CP Apr 2023
- Sporting CP 3–1 Casa Pia Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sporting CP v Casa Pia?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sporting CP v Casa Pia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Claudio Mendes at 76% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.