Tondela v Estoril Praia
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Tondela drew with Estoril Praia 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Alejandro Marqués for 1+ shots total (96%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Yarlen for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lacximicant | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Yanis Begraoui | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Marqués | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yarlen | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Maranhão | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Miro | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Holsgrove | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| André Lacximicant | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yanis Begraoui | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Marqués | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nodar Lominadze | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| João Carvalho | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 3 | ✓ |
| Patrick de Paula | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yaya Sithole | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Estoril Praia 2–2 Tondela Feb 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Tondela v Estoril Praia?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Tondela v Estoril Praia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Yarlen at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.