Sergio Guelho
Over the last 10 Primeira Liga games Sergio Guelho has officiated, the average is 4.60 cards a match — 11% below the league average of 5.17. That's 4.6 yellow a game, with no red card in the 10. The home side sees more cards — 2.0 to 2.6 a game, a sharper split than the league's 0.2 gap. 5+ cards landed in 60% of those games (6 of 10), from a 16.3% foul-to-booking rate. These are raw match figures from those games, not odds.
Match cards last 10 games
Career profile
The two numbers that matter are vs league — the multiplier the model applies to a player's booking chance — and conversion, the share of fouls Sergio Guelho turns into bookings. Conversion, not the raw foul count, is where a referee's real card tendency lives. Career figures across every Primeira Liga season on record.
| Measure | Guelho | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.52 | 5.17 |
| vs league | 0.87× | 1.00× |
| Foul-to-card conversion | 16.3% | 19.0% |
| Fouls / match | 27.7 | 27.2 |
| Red cards shown | 0 | — |
| Matches on record | 27 (4 in 26/27) | — |
Recent matches
The last 8 Primeira Liga games Sergio Guelho took charge of — the actual card and foul counts a match-cards line settles on.
| Match | Score | Cards | Y | R | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicão v FC Alverca12 Oct | 1–4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 38 |
| Vitória SC v Moreirense20 Sep | 1–1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| Marítimo v Benfica5 Sep | 0–3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 36 |
| Marítimo v Casa Pia8 Aug | 1–0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 30 |
| Moreirense v AVS - Futebol SAD16 May | 0–0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 22 |
| FC Arouca v CF Estrela Amadora19 Apr | 1–0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| FC Porto v Famalicão4 Apr | 2–2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 34 |
| Gil Vicente v FC Alverca14 Mar | 2–2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 23 |
● a red card in that match
Frequently asked
How many cards does Sergio Guelho give per game?
Sergio Guelho averages 4.52 cards a game across 27 Primeira Liga matches — 13% below the league average of 5.17. On a Sergio Guelho appointment, the model multiplies every player's booking chance by 0.87.
Is Sergio Guelho a strict referee?
No — more lenient than most. The honest measure is foul-to-card conversion — the share of fouls that become bookings — and Sergio Guelho runs at 16.3% against a league average of 19.0%. Foul counts barely vary between officials; the rate at which a foul becomes a booking is where referees genuinely differ.
Does Sergio Guelho's record change bet builder card prices?
It should. The referee is the single biggest factor in the to-be-carded market, and the appointment is public before kick-off — so a strict official on a combative player is the archetypal card edge. The player cards guide walks through exactly how the model turns a tendency like this into a price.
How reliable is Sergio Guelho's card rate?
It rests on 27 career matches, a solid record. The model shrinks a referee's tendency toward the league average when the sample is thin and discounts its own confidence for officials with young records, so a number like this never gets trusted beyond what the evidence earns.
Rates shown are figures from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage and an opponent factor, and discounts its confidence for thin referee records, before flagging any card as value. It compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — card markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.