Aberdeen v Dundee United
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Aberdeen beat Dundee United 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Kevin Nisbet for 1+ shots total (96%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Neil Farrugia for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Dolček | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kevin Nisbet | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Zachary Sapsford | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Max Watters | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Toyosi Olusanya | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 6 | ✓ |
| Neil Farrugia | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Emmanuel Agyei | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stuart Armstrong | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Julius Eskesen | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vicko Ševelj | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ivan Dolček | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dennis Geiger | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aremu Afeez | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Zachary Sapsford | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Dundee United 0–0 Aberdeen Feb 2026
- Aberdeen 1–1 Dundee United Dec 2025
- Dundee United 2–0 Aberdeen Sep 2025
- Dundee United 2–1 Aberdeen May 2025
- Aberdeen 2–2 Dundee United Mar 2025
- Dundee United 1–0 Aberdeen Dec 2024
- Aberdeen 1–0 Dundee United Oct 2024
- Dundee United 1–3 Aberdeen Mar 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Aberdeen v Dundee United?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Aberdeen v Dundee United?
The most confident call it got wrong was Neil Farrugia at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.