Shots on target — the model, the value and how to read the odds
Shots on target is the most-modelled player market in the Scottish Premiership bet builder, and one of the most frequently mispriced. SharpXI turns four seasons of shot data into a true probability for a player's 1+ or 2+ shots on target, so you can spot when the price is generous.
How SharpXI models it
We build a recency-weighted per-90 rate for the player, shrink it toward a positional prior when the sample is thin, scale it by projected minutes, then apply an opponent factor for how many shots on target that defence tends to concede. A Negative Binomial distribution (which handles the over-dispersion real shot data shows) gives P(shots on target ≥ line), and Shin's method strips the bookmaker margin before we compare it to the price.
Go deeper: How we model shots on target
Where the value tends to sit
Attackers against leaky defences, and midfielders whose shot volume the market under-rates, are where the edge tends to sit. The line matters: 1+ is a high-probability, short-price leg; 2+ swings on minutes and role.
Scottish Premiership — how this market behaves
Across 1,171 graded Scottish Premiership predictions from the 26/27 season, a player recorded 1+ shot on target in 26.2% of appearances. SharpXI's model beat that base rate by 14.3% here, against UEFA Champions League 18.9%, La Liga 17.7%, Ligue 1 16.7%, UEFA Europa League 16.6%, Serie A 15.5%, Premier League 14.7%, Bundesliga 14.6%, UEFA Nations League 13.9%, Championship 13.4% and EFL Cup 12.3%
Scottish Premiership leaders this season
In the 26/27 Scottish Premiership season, Camilo Durán (Celtic) leads for shots on target at 2.20 per 90, ahead of Ryan Don Naderi (1.76) and Alex Lowry (1.68). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (26/27 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Camilo Durán | Celtic | 2.20 | 62% |
| Ryan Don Naderi | Rangers | 1.76 | 86% |
| Alex Lowry | Motherwell | 1.68 | 75% |
| Jesse Randall | Dundee United | 1.42 | 75% |
| Benjamin Nygren | Celtic | 1.28 | 75% |
| Joe Westley | Dundee FC | 1.18 | 57% |
| Mika Baur | Celtic | 1.17 | 67% |
| Joe Hugill | Kilmarnock | 1.12 | 75% |
| Calvin Miller | Heart of Midlothian | 1.01 | 62% |
| Kevin Nisbet | Aberdeen | 1.00 | 75% |
| Daniel Bennie | Dundee United | 0.98 | 50% |
| Josh McPake | Heart of Midlothian | 0.97 | 71% |
Frequently asked
What does 1+ shots on target mean?
It's a bet that the player has at least one shot on target in the match. 2+ means at least two. SharpXI models the probability of each line separately.
How does SharpXI decide a shots-on-target price is value?
It compares its own modelled probability with the implied probability of the bookmaker's price as offered. When the model's number is higher, the leg is flagged as value — with a confidence rating from the sample size. ⚠ Shots on target is quoted one side only, so the margin cannot be stripped out and the edge shown is before the bookmaker's margin, not after it.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.