Aberdeen v Heart of Midlothian
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Aberdeen beat Heart of Midlothian 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Cláudio Braga for 1+ shots total (96%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Toyosi Olusanya for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudio Braga | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sabah Kerjota | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pierre Landry Kaboré | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Calvin Miller | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kevin Nisbet | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Blair Spittal | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Toyosi Olusanya | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cláudio Braga | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sabah Kerjota | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pierre Landry Kaboré | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Calvin Miller | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bradley Lyons | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Harry Milne | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordi Altena | shots total | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Heart of Midlothian 1–0 Aberdeen Feb 2026
- Aberdeen 1–0 Heart of Midlothian Nov 2025
- Heart of Midlothian 2–0 Aberdeen Aug 2025
- Aberdeen 0–0 Heart of Midlothian Jan 2025
- Heart of Midlothian 1–1 Aberdeen Dec 2024
- Aberdeen 3–2 Heart of Midlothian Oct 2024
- Heart of Midlothian 2–0 Aberdeen Jan 2024
- Aberdeen 2–1 Heart of Midlothian Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Aberdeen v Heart of Midlothian?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Aberdeen v Heart of Midlothian?
The most confident call it got wrong was Toyosi Olusanya at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.