Aberdeen v Kilmarnock
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Aberdeen drew with Kilmarnock 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 6 landed — the strongest being Ayoub Mouloua for 1+ shots total (89%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Kevin Nisbet for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
See the full player stats boardPlayer markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Hugill | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Djenairo Daniels | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kevin Nisbet | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mitchy Ntelo | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ayoub Mouloua | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lewis Smith | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rory McKenzie | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Toyosi Olusanya | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aaron Tshibola | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Greg Kiltie | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Findlay Marshall | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stuart Armstrong | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joe Hugill | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mitchy Ntelo | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Aberdeen 1–0 Kilmarnock Apr 2026
- Kilmarnock 3–0 Aberdeen Jan 2026
- Aberdeen 2–1 Kilmarnock Dec 2025
- Kilmarnock 0–1 Aberdeen Oct 2025
- Aberdeen 1–0 Kilmarnock Feb 2025
- Kilmarnock 4–0 Aberdeen Dec 2024
- Aberdeen 2–0 Kilmarnock Aug 2024
- Kilmarnock 2–0 Aberdeen Feb 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Aberdeen v Kilmarnock?
6 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Aberdeen v Kilmarnock?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kevin Nisbet at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.