Aberdeen v St. Johnstone
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Aberdeen lost to St. Johnstone 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Kevin Nisbet for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Taylor Steven for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
See the full player stats boardPlayer markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruari Paton | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kevin Nisbet | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ayoub Mouloua | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Josh Fowler | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lewis Smith | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Taylor Steven | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sam Stanton | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Connor Ronan | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 3 | ✓ |
| Findlay Marshall | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
| Stuart Armstrong | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Reece McAlear | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ruari Paton | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
| Josh Fowler | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ayoub Mouloua | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- St. Johnstone 0–0 Aberdeen Mar 2025
- Aberdeen 1–1 St. Johnstone Dec 2024
- St. Johnstone 1–2 Aberdeen Aug 2024
- Aberdeen 1–0 St. Johnstone May 2024
- Aberdeen 0–2 St. Johnstone Feb 2024
- St. Johnstone 1–1 Aberdeen Jan 2024
- Aberdeen 0–0 St. Johnstone Oct 2023
- St. Johnstone 0–1 Aberdeen Apr 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Aberdeen v St. Johnstone?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Aberdeen v St. Johnstone?
The most confident call it got wrong was Taylor Steven at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.