Scottish Premiership 25/26

Heart of Midlothian v Celtic

How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.

Heart of Midlothian2 – 2 Celtic 25 Jan 2026

11~~/14~~

of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Heart of Midlothian drew with Celtic 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Tomáš Čvančara for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Arne Engels for 1+ shots total (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials-16% cards vs the league average

Steven McLean refereed this match 3.38cards a gameleague 4.02 68games

Steven McLean's card record

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Tomáš Čvančara	shots total	1+	94%	2	✓
Benjamin Nygren	shots total	1+	94%	1	✓
Yang Hyun-Jun	shots total	1+	89%	1	✓
Daizen Maeda	shots total	1+	89%	1	✓
Sebastian Tounekti	shots total	1+	89%	1	✓
Pierre Landry Kaboré	shots total	1+	81%	1	✓
Arne Engels	shots total	1+	81%	0	✗
Cláudio Braga	shots total	1+	81%	3	✓
Alexandros Kyziridis	shots total	1+	72%	4	✓
Benjamin Nygren	shots on target	1+	63%	1	✓
Callum McGregor	shots total	1+	62%	0	✗
Tomas Magnusson	shots total	1+	60%	1	✓
Kieran Tierney	shots total	1+	60%	1	✓
Daizen Maeda	shots on target	1+	54%	0	✗

How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target

Dig deeper

Heart of Midlothian & Celtic player stats→ Heart of Midlothian players & stats→ Celtic players & stats→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Heart of Midlothian v Celtic?

11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Heart of Midlothian v Celtic?

The most confident call it got wrong was Arne Engels at 81% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works