Scottish Premiership 26/27

Hibernian v Aberdeen

How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.

Hibernian1 – 1 Aberdeen 19 Sep 2026

11~~/14~~

of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Hibernian drew with Aberdeen 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Martin Boyle for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Stuart Armstrong for 1+ shots total (62%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Martin Boyle	shots total	1+	94%	1	✓
Owen Elding	shots total	1+	89%	1	✓
Josh Mulligan	shots total	1+	89%	2	✓
Kevin Nisbet	shots total	1+	89%	3	✓
Callum Wright	shots total	1+	82%	1	✓
Toyosi Olusanya	shots total	1+	81%	1	✓
Findlay Marshall	shots total	1+	69%	1	✓
Connor Ronan	shots total	1+	69%	1	✓
Adam Mayor	shots total	1+	62%	0	✗
Jason Kerr	shots total	1+	62%	1	✓
Stuart Armstrong	shots total	1+	62%	0	✗
Felix Passlack	shots total	1+	62%	0	✗
Miguel Changa Chaiwa	shots total	1+	62%	2	✓
Aremu Afeez	shots total	1+	60%	1	✓

How these are modelled: Shots total

Dig deeper

Hibernian & Aberdeen player stats→ Hibernian players & stats→ Aberdeen players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Hibernian v Aberdeen?

11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Hibernian v Aberdeen?

The most confident call it got wrong was Stuart Armstrong at 62% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works