Kilmarnock v Hibernian
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Kilmarnock lost to Hibernian 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Junior Hoilett for 1+ shots total (96%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Josh Mulligan for 1+ shots total (72%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Hoilett | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elie Youan | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Thibault Klidjé | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tyreece John-Jules | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Bruce Anderson | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jamie McGrath | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Junior Hoilett | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Josh Mulligan | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| David Watson | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Thibault Klidjé | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tyreece John-Jules | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elie Youan | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bradley Lyons | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jack Thomson | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hibernian 0–1 Kilmarnock Sep 2026
- Hibernian 3–0 Kilmarnock Apr 2026
- Hibernian 2–2 Kilmarnock Aug 2025
- Kilmarnock 1–1 Hibernian Mar 2025
- Hibernian 1–0 Kilmarnock Dec 2024
- Kilmarnock 1–1 Hibernian Sep 2024
- Kilmarnock 2–2 Hibernian Jan 2024
- Hibernian 1–0 Kilmarnock Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Kilmarnock v Hibernian?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Kilmarnock v Hibernian?
The most confident call it got wrong was Josh Mulligan at 72% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.