Kilmarnock v St. Mirren
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Kilmarnock lost to St. Mirren 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Tyreece John-Jules for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Jake Young for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
See the full player stats boardPlayer markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Young | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tyreece John-Jules | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ismeal Kabia | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nikolas Agrafiotis | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joe Hugill | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Djenairo Daniels | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Chris Mochrie | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jake Young | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luke Thomas | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Greg Kiltie | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fraser Taylor | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ryan Carr | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aaron Tshibola | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Paul Nsio | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- St. Mirren 0–3 Kilmarnock May 2026
- Kilmarnock 4–3 St. Mirren Feb 2026
- St. Mirren 0–0 Kilmarnock Dec 2025
- Kilmarnock 2–0 St. Mirren Oct 2025
- St. Mirren 5–1 Kilmarnock Mar 2025
- Kilmarnock 2–0 St. Mirren Jan 2025
- St. Mirren 2–2 Kilmarnock Sep 2024
- St. Mirren 0–1 Kilmarnock May 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Kilmarnock v St. Mirren?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Kilmarnock v St. Mirren?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jake Young at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.