Livingston v Dundee FC
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Livingston drew with Dundee FC 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Lewis Smith for 1+ shots total (96%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Simon Murray for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
12 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Smith | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jeremy Bokila | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Stevie May | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Connor McLennan | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ashley Hay | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Simon Murray | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ethan Hamilton | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yan Dhanda | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mahamadou Susoho | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cameron Congreve | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cristian Montaño | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lewis Smith | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Stevie May | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jeremy Bokila | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Dundee FC 3–0 Livingston May 2026
- Dundee FC 2–2 Livingston Feb 2026
- Dundee FC 3–2 Livingston Sep 2025
- Livingston 1–4 Dundee FC Jan 2024
- Dundee FC 1–0 Livingston Nov 2023
- Livingston 0–2 Dundee FC Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Livingston v Dundee FC?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Livingston v Dundee FC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Simon Murray at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.