Livingston v St. Mirren
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Livingston drew with St. Mirren 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Mikael Mandron for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Keanu Baccus for 1+ shots total (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan N'Lundulu | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mikael Mandron | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Robbie Muirhead | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lewis Smith | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Keanu Baccus | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jeremy Bokila | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Barrie McKay | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Killian Phillips | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mark O'Hara | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mikael Mandron | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
| Scott Tanser | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joel Nouble | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 2 | ✓ |
| Emmanuel Danso | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alexander Gogić | shots total | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- St. Mirren 0–2 Livingston Apr 2026
- Livingston 1–1 St. Mirren Jan 2026
- St. Mirren 1–0 Livingston Dec 2025
- Livingston 1–0 St. Mirren Feb 2024
- St. Mirren 1–0 Livingston Nov 2023
- Livingston 1–1 St. Mirren Sep 2023
- St. Mirren 3–0 Livingston Apr 2023
- Livingston 1–1 St. Mirren Dec 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Livingston v St. Mirren?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Livingston v St. Mirren?
The most confident call it got wrong was Keanu Baccus at 82% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.