Motherwell v Celtic
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Motherwell lost to Celtic 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Benjamin Nygren for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Alex Lowry for 1+ shots total (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
See the full player stats boardPlayer markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasper Høgh | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Camilo Durán | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Benjamin Nygren | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sebastian Tounekti | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alex Lowry | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sebastian Palmer-Houlden | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 4 | ✓ |
| Callum McGregor | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Willy Vogt | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mika Baur | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 5 | ✓ |
| Camilo Durán | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kasper Høgh | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
| Benjamin Nygren | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kieran Tierney | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
| Emmanuel Longelo | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Motherwell 2–3 Celtic May 2026
- Celtic 3–1 Motherwell Mar 2026
- Motherwell 2–0 Celtic Dec 2025
- Celtic 3–2 Motherwell Oct 2025
- Motherwell 1–3 Celtic Feb 2025
- Celtic 4–0 Motherwell Dec 2024
- Motherwell 0–3 Celtic Oct 2024
- Motherwell 1–3 Celtic Feb 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Motherwell v Celtic?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Motherwell v Celtic?
The most confident call it got wrong was Alex Lowry at 81% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.