Motherwell v Kilmarnock
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Motherwell beat Kilmarnock 4–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Callum Slattery for 1+ shots total (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Bruce Anderson for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Slattery | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tawanda Maswanhise | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tyreece John-Jules | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marcus Dackers | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elijah Just | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bruce Anderson | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ibrahim Said | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Greg Kiltie | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bradley Lyons | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tawanda Maswanhise | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tyreece John-Jules | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
| Callum Slattery | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Sparrow | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Emmanuel Longelo | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Kilmarnock 1–3 Motherwell Nov 2025
- Motherwell 2–2 Kilmarnock Aug 2025
- Motherwell 3–0 Kilmarnock May 2025
- Kilmarnock 2–0 Motherwell Apr 2025
- Kilmarnock 0–0 Motherwell Jan 2025
- Motherwell 1–1 Kilmarnock Dec 2024
- Motherwell 1–1 Kilmarnock Feb 2024
- Kilmarnock 1–0 Motherwell Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Motherwell v Kilmarnock?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Motherwell v Kilmarnock?
The most confident call it got wrong was Bruce Anderson at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.