Ross County v Heart of Midlothian
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Ross County lost to Heart of Midlothian 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Lawrence Shankland for 1+ shots total (96%, had 7). Its clearest miss: Kieran Phillips for 1+ shots total (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Shankland | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 7 | ✓ |
| Alan Forrest | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 5 | ✓ |
| Kenneth Vargas | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ronan Hale | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jorge Grant | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Blair Spittal | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kieran Phillips | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alex Samuel | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan White | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ronan Hale | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kenneth Vargas | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lawrence Shankland | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 4 | ✓ |
| Calem Nieuwenhof | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alan Forrest | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Heart of Midlothian 2–0 Ross County Mar 2025
- Ross County 2–2 Heart of Midlothian Dec 2024
- Heart of Midlothian 1–1 Ross County Sep 2024
- Ross County 2–1 Heart of Midlothian Mar 2024
- Heart of Midlothian 2–2 Ross County Dec 2023
- Ross County 0–1 Heart of Midlothian Sep 2023
- Heart of Midlothian 6–1 Ross County Apr 2023
- Ross County 1–2 Heart of Midlothian Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Ross County v Heart of Midlothian?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Ross County v Heart of Midlothian?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kieran Phillips at 82% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.