Ross County v Kilmarnock
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Ross County beat Kilmarnock 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Marley Watkins for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Bobby Wales for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Anderson | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 6 | ✓ |
| Marley Watkins | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bobby Wales | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kieran Phillips | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Danny Armstrong | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| George Robesten | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Noah Chilvers | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bradley Lyons | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 5 | ✓ |
| Fraser Murray | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan White | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| David Watson | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joe Wright | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bruce Anderson | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bobby Wales | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Kilmarnock 2–0 Ross County Apr 2025
- Kilmarnock 0–1 Ross County Jan 2025
- Ross County 2–1 Kilmarnock Oct 2024
- Kilmarnock 1–0 Ross County Apr 2024
- Ross County 0–0 Kilmarnock Nov 2023
- Kilmarnock 0–1 Ross County Sep 2023
- Kilmarnock 3–1 Ross County May 2023
- Ross County 3–0 Kilmarnock Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Ross County v Kilmarnock?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Ross County v Kilmarnock?
The most confident call it got wrong was Bobby Wales at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.