Ross County v Motherwell
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Ross County drew with Motherwell 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Ronan Hale for 1+ shots total (96%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Will Dickson for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronan Hale | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 6 | ✓ |
| Luke Armstrong | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Callum Slattery | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Will Dickson | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alex Samuel | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lennon Miller | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tom Sparrow | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ronan Hale | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Will Dickson | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luke Armstrong | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Michee Efete | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joshua Nisbet | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kai Andrews | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nohan Kenneh | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Motherwell 0–3 Ross County Feb 2025
- Ross County 2–1 Motherwell Nov 2024
- Motherwell 0–0 Ross County Aug 2024
- Ross County 1–5 Motherwell May 2024
- Motherwell 5–0 Ross County Feb 2024
- Ross County 3–0 Motherwell Dec 2023
- Motherwell 3–3 Ross County Oct 2023
- Motherwell 1–0 Ross County May 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Ross County v Motherwell?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Ross County v Motherwell?
The most confident call it got wrong was Will Dickson at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.