St. Johnstone v Heart of Midlothian
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before St. Johnstone lost to Heart of Midlothian 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Lawrence Shankland for 1+ shots total (96%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Jonathan Svedberg for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adama Sidibeh | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lawrence Shankland | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elton Kabangu | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Graham Carey | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Svedberg | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Blair Spittal | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elton Kabangu | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| James Wilson | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jorge Grant | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sander Erik Kartum | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lawrence Shankland | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stephen Duke-McKenna | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Adama Sidibeh | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jamie McCart | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Heart of Midlothian 2–1 St. Johnstone Aug 2026
- Heart of Midlothian 2–1 St. Johnstone May 2025
- Heart of Midlothian 2–1 St. Johnstone Dec 2024
- St. Johnstone 1–2 Heart of Midlothian Nov 2024
- St. Johnstone 0–1 Heart of Midlothian Feb 2024
- Heart of Midlothian 1–0 St. Johnstone Nov 2023
- St. Johnstone 0–2 Heart of Midlothian Aug 2023
- Heart of Midlothian 3–0 St. Johnstone Mar 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on St. Johnstone v Heart of Midlothian?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on St. Johnstone v Heart of Midlothian?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jonathan Svedberg at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.