St. Johnstone v Kilmarnock
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before St. Johnstone beat Kilmarnock 4–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Joe Hugill for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Tyreece John-Jules for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreece John-Jules | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joe Hugill | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ruari Paton | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nicky Cleșcenco | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Greg Kiltie | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Aaron Tshibola | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tyreece John-Jules | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bailey Rice | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ruari Paton | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joe Hugill | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kai Fotheringham | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tom Lowery | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mark O'Hara | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Schjønning-Larsen | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- St. Johnstone 0–2 Kilmarnock May 2025
- Kilmarnock 3–1 St. Johnstone Feb 2025
- St. Johnstone 1–0 Kilmarnock Nov 2024
- Kilmarnock 0–3 St. Johnstone Aug 2024
- St. Johnstone 0–2 Kilmarnock Apr 2024
- Kilmarnock 2–1 St. Johnstone Dec 2023
- St. Johnstone 2–1 Kilmarnock Nov 2023
- Kilmarnock 0–1 St. Johnstone May 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on St. Johnstone v Kilmarnock?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on St. Johnstone v Kilmarnock?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tyreece John-Jules at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.