St. Johnstone v Livingston
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before St. Johnstone drew with Livingston 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Kurtis Guthrie for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Diallang Jaiyesimi for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurtis Guthrie | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tete Yengi | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daniel MacKay | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nicky Clark | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Stevie May | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Diallang Jaiyesimi | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cristian Montaño | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Graham Carey | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tete Yengi | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daniel MacKay | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matt Smith | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sean Kelly | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| David Carson | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Livingston 2–1 St. Johnstone May 2024
- Livingston 0–0 St. Johnstone Dec 2023
- St. Johnstone 1–1 Livingston Sep 2023
- St. Johnstone 2–0 Livingston May 2023
- Livingston 2–0 St. Johnstone Apr 2023
- St. Johnstone 2–4 Livingston Jan 2023
- Livingston 1–0 St. Johnstone Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on St. Johnstone v Livingston?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on St. Johnstone v Livingston?
The most confident call it got wrong was Diallang Jaiyesimi at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.