Scottish Premiership 26/27

St. Mirren v Motherwell

How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.

St. Mirren3 – 3 Motherwell 30 Aug 2026

11~~/14~~

of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before St. Mirren drew with Motherwell 3–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Tawanda Maswanhise for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Ibrahim Said for 1+ shots total (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Tawanda Maswanhise	shots total	1+	94%	3	✓
Eseosa Sule	shots total	1+	89%	4	✓
Chris Mochrie	shots total	1+	89%	2	✓
Samuel Ramos	shots total	1+	89%	2	✓
Regan Charles-Cook	shots total	1+	87%	2	✓
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden	shots total	1+	82%	3	✓
Alex Lowry	shots total	1+	82%	5	✓
Ibrahim Said	shots total	1+	81%	0	✗
Ryan Carr	shots total	1+	69%	0	✗
Tawanda Maswanhise	shots on target	1+	63%	2	✓
Emmanuel Longelo	shots total	1+	62%	3	✓
Fraser Taylor	shots total	1+	62%	2	✓
Paul Nsio	shots total	1+	62%	2	✓
Lukas Fadinger	shots total	1+	62%	0	✗

How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target

Dig deeper

St. Mirren & Motherwell player stats→ St. Mirren players & stats→ Motherwell players & stats→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on St. Mirren v Motherwell?

11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on St. Mirren v Motherwell?

The most confident call it got wrong was Ibrahim Said at 81% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works