AC Milan v Pisa
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AC Milan drew with Pisa 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Juan Cuadrado for 1+ tackles (97%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Juan Cuadrado for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Cuadrado | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rafael Leão | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Santiago Giménez | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Michel Aebischer | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Juan Cuadrado | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Youssouf Fofana | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| M'bala Nzola | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matteo Tramoni | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Giovanni Bonfanti | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luka Modrić | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Samuele Ricci | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rafael Leão | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 5 | ✓ |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 4% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Pisa 1–2 AC Milan Feb 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AC Milan v Pisa?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AC Milan v Pisa?
The most confident call it got wrong was Juan Cuadrado at 90% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.