AC Milan v Salernitana
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AC Milan drew with Salernitana 3–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Davide Calabria for 1+ tackles (97%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Simy for 1+ fouls drawn (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
8 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davide Calabria | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Christian Pulišić | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Olivier Giroud | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 6 | ✓ |
| Rafael Leão | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Theo Hernández | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Grigoris Kastanos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Olivier Giroud | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Loum Tchaouna | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Antonio Candreva | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Giulio Maggiore | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Emanuel Vignato | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Simy | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ismaël Bennacer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Niccolò Pierozzi | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 70% | 6 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 49% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 45% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Salernitana 2–2 AC Milan Dec 2023
- AC Milan 1–1 Salernitana Mar 2023
- Salernitana 1–2 AC Milan Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AC Milan v Salernitana?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AC Milan v Salernitana?
The most confident call it got wrong was Simy at 83% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.