Serie A · 22/23

AC Milan v Spezia

How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

AC Milan2 – 1 Spezia 5 Nov 2022

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 13 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Rafael Leão	shots total	1+	98%	3	✓
Divock Origi	shots total	1+	98%	3	✓
Daniele Verde	shots total	1+	89%	2	✓
Daniel Maldini	shots total	1+	89%	1	✓
M'bala Nzola	shots total	1+	84%	2	✓
Brahim Díaz	shots total	1+	81%	2	✓
Theo Hernández	shots total	1+	81%	5	✓
Sandro Tonali	shots total	1+	81%	1	✓
Junior Messias	shots total	1+	81%	3	✓
Rade Krunić	shots total	1+	81%	2	✓
Daniel Maldini	fouls drawn	1+	77%	1	✓
M'bala Nzola	fouls committed	1+	76%	2	✓
Divock Origi	fouls drawn	1+	72%	1	✓
Ismaël Bennacer	shots total	1+	72%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	57%	3 goals	✓
Match cards	O4.5	57%	10 cards	✓
Btts	Yes	41%	Yes	✓

Dig deeper

AC Milan & Spezia player stats→ AC Milan players & stats→ Spezia players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Spezia 2–0 AC Milan May 2023

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works