AC Milan v Spezia
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AC Milan beat Spezia 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Rafael Leão for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Arkadiusz Reca for 1+ tackles (80%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divock Origi | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rafael Leão | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ismaël Bennacer | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Fikayo Tomori | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Daniel Maldini | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daniele Verde | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| M'bala Nzola | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rade Krunić | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sandro Tonali | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Brahim Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matteo Gabbia | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Daniel Maldini | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Arkadiusz Reca | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mikael Ellertsson | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 60% | 10 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 57% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 41% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Spezia 2–0 AC Milan May 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AC Milan v Spezia?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AC Milan v Spezia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Arkadiusz Reca at 80% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.