Serie A · 22/23
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Spezia v AC Milan
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Spezia2 – 0
AC Milan
13 May 2023
Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 14 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ante Rebić | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Divock Origi | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tommaso Pobega | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Brahim Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Theo Hernández | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| M'bala Nzola | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Charles De Ketelaere | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tommaso Pobega | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Szymon Żurkowski | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| M'bala Nzola | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Emmanuel Gyasi | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brahim Díaz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Salvatore Esposito | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Btts | Yes | 55% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 48% | 2 cards | ✗ |
Dig deeper
Spezia & AC Milan player stats→
Spezia players & stats→
AC Milan players & stats→
Shots on target model→
To be carded model→
Guide: bet builder value→
Past meetings
- AC Milan 2–1 Spezia Nov 2022
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.