AS Roma v Atalanta
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AS Roma beat Atalanta 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Nahuel Molina for 1+ tackles (97%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Nikola Krstović for 1+ shots on target (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniele Ghilardi | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nahuel Molina | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Paulo Dybala | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 6 | ✓ |
| Gianluca Scamacca | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nikola Krstović | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Donyell Malen | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Paulo Dybala | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nikola Krstović | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Donyell Malen | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bryan Cristante | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nikola Krstović | fouls committed | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matías Soulé | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 7 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Mora | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 6 | ✓ |
| Santiago Castro | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 51% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 25% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AS Roma 1–1 Atalanta Apr 2026
- Atalanta 1–0 AS Roma Jan 2026
- Atalanta 2–1 AS Roma May 2025
- AS Roma 0–2 Atalanta Dec 2024
- Atalanta 2–1 AS Roma May 2024
- AS Roma 1–1 Atalanta Jan 2024
- Atalanta 3–1 AS Roma Apr 2023
- AS Roma 0–1 Atalanta Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AS Roma v Atalanta?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AS Roma v Atalanta?
The most confident call it got wrong was Nikola Krstović at 92% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.