Atalanta v Hellas Verona
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Atalanta beat Hellas Verona 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Roberto Gagliardini for 1+ tackles (97%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Giacomo Raspadori for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Gagliardini | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Abdou Harroui | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jean Daniel Akpa-Akpro | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gift Orban | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Giacomo Raspadori | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nikola Krstović | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nicola Zalewski | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tomáš Suslov | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nikola Krstović | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giacomo Raspadori | shots on target | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Charles De Ketelaere | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kieron Bowie | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marten de Roon | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tomáš Suslov | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hellas Verona 3–1 Atalanta Dec 2025
- Hellas Verona 0–5 Atalanta Feb 2025
- Atalanta 6–1 Hellas Verona Oct 2024
- Atalanta 2–2 Hellas Verona Apr 2024
- Hellas Verona 0–1 Atalanta Sep 2023
- Atalanta 3–1 Hellas Verona May 2023
- Hellas Verona 0–1 Atalanta Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Atalanta v Hellas Verona?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Atalanta v Hellas Verona?
The most confident call it got wrong was Giacomo Raspadori at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.