Atalanta v Sassuolo
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Atalanta beat Sassuolo 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Nikola Krstović for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Gianluca Scamacca for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
12 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Scamacca | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Giacomo Raspadori | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lazar Samardžić | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nikola Krstović | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nikola Krstović | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gianluca Scamacca | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Darryl Bakola | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 5 | ✓ |
| Kieron Bowie | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Armand Laurienté | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 6 | ✓ |
| Charles De Ketelaere | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nikola Krstović | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giorgio Scalvini | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Éderson | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nicola Zalewski | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 57% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 20% | 0 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sassuolo 2–1 Atalanta Mar 2026
- Atalanta 0–3 Sassuolo Nov 2025
- Atalanta 3–0 Sassuolo Feb 2024
- Sassuolo 0–2 Atalanta Aug 2023
- Sassuolo 1–0 Atalanta Feb 2023
- Atalanta 2–1 Sassuolo Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Atalanta v Sassuolo?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Atalanta v Sassuolo?
The most confident call it got wrong was Gianluca Scamacca at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.