Fiorentina v Spezia
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Fiorentina drew with Spezia 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Lucas Martínez Quarta for 1+ tackles (97%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Giacomo Bonaventura for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simone Bastoni | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lucas Martínez Quarta | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Giacomo Bonaventura | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Riccardo Sottil | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nicolás González | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Arthur Cabral | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nicolás González | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Arthur Cabral | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cristiano Biraghi | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonathan Ikoné | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rolando Mandragora | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Daniel Maldini | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gaetano Castrovilli | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tio Cipot | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 56% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 7 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Spezia 1–2 Fiorentina Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Fiorentina v Spezia?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Fiorentina v Spezia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Giacomo Bonaventura at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.