Spezia v Fiorentina
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Spezia lost to Fiorentina 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Lucas Martínez Quarta for 1+ tackles (97%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Luka Jović for 1+ shots on target (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Martínez Quarta | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luka Jović | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Christian Kouamé | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Christian Kouamé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Luka Jović | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonathan Ikoné | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Giacomo Bonaventura | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Riccardo Saponara | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kevin Agudelo | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rolando Mandragora | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Cristiano Biraghi | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Rolando Mandragora | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Sofyan Amrabat | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arkadiusz Reca | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 40% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 39% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 9 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Fiorentina 1–1 Spezia Apr 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Spezia v Fiorentina?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Spezia v Fiorentina?
The most confident call it got wrong was Luka Jović at 92% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.