Fiorentina v Torino
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Fiorentina lost to Torino 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Nathan Patterson for 1+ tackles (97%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Giovanni Simeone for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Patterson | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giovanni Simeone | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Franco Mastantuono | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Franco Mastantuono | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mateo Pellegrino | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alieu Njie | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mateo Pellegrino | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wilfried Gnonto | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rolando Mandragora | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Che Adams | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Arthur Atta | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| João Mário | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alieu Njie | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wilfried Gnonto | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 52% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 0 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Fiorentina 2–2 Torino Feb 2026
- Torino 0–0 Fiorentina Aug 2025
- Fiorentina 1–1 Torino Jan 2025
- Torino 0–1 Fiorentina Nov 2024
- Torino 0–0 Fiorentina Mar 2024
- Fiorentina 1–0 Torino Dec 2023
- Torino 1–1 Fiorentina May 2023
- Fiorentina 0–1 Torino Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Fiorentina v Torino?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Fiorentina v Torino?
The most confident call it got wrong was Giovanni Simeone at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.