Genoa v AS Roma
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Genoa beat AS Roma 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Patrizio Masini for 1+ tackles (97%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Donyell Malen for 1+ shots on target (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrizio Masini | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Donyell Malen | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Junior Messias | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Donyell Malen | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Morten Frendrup | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Devyne Rensch | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Patrizio Masini | fouls committed | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Venturino | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lorenzo Colombo | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Caleb Ekuban | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Junior Messias | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Niccolò Pisilli | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Stefano Sabelli | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 41% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AS Roma 3–1 Genoa Dec 2025
- AS Roma 3–1 Genoa Jan 2025
- Genoa 1–1 AS Roma Sep 2024
- AS Roma 1–0 Genoa May 2024
- Genoa 4–1 AS Roma Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Genoa v AS Roma?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Genoa v AS Roma?
The most confident call it got wrong was Donyell Malen at 92% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.