Inter v Spezia
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Inter beat Spezia 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Lautaro Martínez for 1+ shots total (95%, had 4). Its clearest miss: David Strelec for 1+ fouls drawn (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
9 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romelu Lukaku | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Edin Džeko | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lautaro Martínez | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Simone Bastoni | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| David Strelec | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Edin Džeko | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Romelu Lukaku | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lautaro Martínez | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| David Strelec | fouls committed | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| M'bala Nzola | fouls committed | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kevin Agudelo | fouls committed | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Simone Bastoni | fouls committed | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Emmanuel Gyasi | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arkadiusz Reca | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 33% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 25% | 0 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 24% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Spezia 2–1 Inter Mar 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Inter v Spezia?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Inter v Spezia?
The most confident call it got wrong was David Strelec at 94% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.