Juventus v Parma
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Juventus beat Parma 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Nicolás González for 1+ shots total (95%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Jérémie Boga for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás González | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Francisco Conceição | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jérémie Boga | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Christian Ordoñez | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Manuel Locatelli | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jonathan David | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| El Bilal Touré | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Simone Lontani | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Adrián Bernabé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Randal Kolo Muani | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 6 | ✓ |
| Douglas Luiz | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mariano Troilo | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Benjamin Cremaschi | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Zeki Çelik | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 5 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 51% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 39% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 14% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Parma 1–4 Juventus Feb 2026
- Juventus 2–0 Parma Aug 2025
- Parma 1–0 Juventus Apr 2025
- Juventus 2–2 Parma Oct 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Juventus v Parma?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Juventus v Parma?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jérémie Boga at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.