Lazio v Genoa
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Lazio beat Genoa 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Vitinha for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Matteo Cancellieri for 1+ fouls drawn (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitinha | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gustav Isaksen | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matteo Cancellieri | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gustav Isaksen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mattia Zaccagni | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tommaso Baldanzi | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Junior Messias | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matteo Cancellieri | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Davide Frattesi | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Colombo | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Junior Messias | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Morten Frendrup | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vitinha | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Junior Messias | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 45% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 39% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 25% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Lazio 3–2 Genoa Jan 2026
- Genoa 0–3 Lazio Sep 2025
- Genoa 0–2 Lazio Apr 2025
- Lazio 3–0 Genoa Oct 2024
- Genoa 0–1 Lazio Apr 2024
- Lazio 0–1 Genoa Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Lazio v Genoa?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Lazio v Genoa?
The most confident call it got wrong was Matteo Cancellieri at 94% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.