Lazio v Hellas Verona
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Lazio beat Hellas Verona 4–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Valentín Castellanos for 1+ shots total (95%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Pedro for 1+ shots on target (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
12 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentín Castellanos | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 6 | ✓ |
| Pedro | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mattia Zaccagni | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Matteo Cancellieri | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Pedro | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abdou Harroui | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giovane | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Suat Serdar | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Nicolò Rovella | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pedro | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Valentín Castellanos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Amin Sarr | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Suat Serdar | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Unai Núñez | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 62% | 0 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 41% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 41% | 4 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hellas Verona 0–1 Lazio Jan 2026
- Hellas Verona 0–3 Lazio Jan 2025
- Lazio 2–1 Hellas Verona Sep 2024
- Lazio 1–0 Hellas Verona Apr 2024
- Hellas Verona 1–1 Lazio Dec 2023
- Hellas Verona 1–1 Lazio Feb 2023
- Lazio 2–0 Hellas Verona Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Lazio v Hellas Verona?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Lazio v Hellas Verona?
The most confident call it got wrong was Pedro at 92% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.