Parma v Genoa
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Parma beat Genoa 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Junior Messias for 1+ tackles (97%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Lorenzo Colombo for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Messias | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 6 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Colombo | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Junior Messias | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Tommaso Baldanzi | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| David Romero | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Stephan El Shaarawy | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nesta Elphege | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| El Bilal Touré | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Simone Lontani | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Morten Frendrup | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Junior Messias | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mandela Keita | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Pontus Almqvist | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Simone Lontani | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 42% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 35% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 21% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Parma 0–0 Genoa Jan 2026
- Genoa 0–0 Parma Oct 2025
- Genoa 1–0 Parma Jan 2025
- Parma 0–1 Genoa Nov 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Parma v Genoa?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Parma v Genoa?
The most confident call it got wrong was Lorenzo Colombo at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.